The latest South Asia Development Update from the World Bank offers hope for better growth prospects in the region but highlights a significant concern: climate shocks.
During a virtual briefing with select South Asian editors, Franziska Ohnsorge, the Bank’s Chief Economist for South Asia, underscored the urgent need to address climate resilience, particularly in countries like Bangladesh, which are among the most vulnerable to climate change.
Recent data reveals that Bangladesh has experienced a summer temperature increase of 0.9℃ between 2018 and 2022 compared to the baseline of 1986-2005. This rise exceeds the global average by 0.2℃.
Citing the 2023 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report, the World Bank notes that only Afghanistan has witnessed a higher temperature increase in South Asia, standing at 1.3℃.
Franziska Ohnsorge emphasized the necessity of improving climate resilience, especially considering that over 40% of South Asia’s workforce is engaged in agriculture, where rising temperatures are increasingly rendering outdoor work unbearable.
The Lancet report also highlights the economic impact of heat exposure on labor capacity, with potential income losses reaching $863 billion globally in 2022. Agricultural workers are particularly affected, and rising temperatures are contributing to a 28.6% increase in the transmission potential for diseases like dengue.
Climate change projections indicate that by 2050, the number of hours too hot for outdoor work in Bangladesh may increase from 7 to 8 hours, further exacerbating economic challenges.
According to the World Bank, climate change-induced heatwaves, floods, and droughts are already taking a toll on human health and well-being. South Asia’s large agricultural sector, combined with its relatively warm average temperature, makes it particularly susceptible.
The report warns of increased heat stress, decreased agricultural productivity, and heightened risk of floods and landslides due to melting glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region.
Coastal regions face threats from rising sea levels, potentially displacing millions of people by 2050.
Globally, climate change is projected to significantly reduce GDP per capita by 2100. Urgent policy changes are needed to mitigate these impacts and safeguard the future of vulnerable regions like Bangladesh.
