Goldman Sachs suggests that the widespread adoption of powerful new weight-loss drugs in the United States could lead to a significant 1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the coming years. This optimistic outlook is based on the anticipation that lower obesity-related complications, driven by the use of these drugs, will enhance workplace efficiency.
Analysts project that the weight-loss drugs market may surge to $100 billion annually by the end of the decade, with industry leaders such as Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) and Eli Lilly (LLY.N), the manufacturer of Mounjaro, at the forefront.
The targeted class of drugs, known as GLP-1 agonists, is currently drawing intense interest from various companies, and additional players may enter the market pending the outcome of ongoing clinical trials. Goldman Sachs estimates that the usage of GLP-1s could potentially rise among 10 to 70 million consumers by 2028.
In a note, Goldman economists stated, “If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases by this amount and results in lower obesity rates, we see scope for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” citing academic studies that link obesity to reduced work participation and productivity.
The brokerage’s analysis indicates that weight-loss drugs could contribute to a 0.4% boost in U.S. GDP with 30 million users, potentially rising to 1% with 60 million users. Furthermore, when combined with ongoing healthcare innovations, such as AI-powered drug discovery, the impact on U.S. GDP could be substantial, reaching 1.3% in the coming years – equivalent to $360 billion annually at current exchange rates. This projection has a potential increase range from 0.6% to 3.2%.
Goldman Sachs notes that the effects of this healthcare innovation are likely to be more pronounced in the U.S. compared to other developed markets, where health outcomes are generally better. The prospect of weight-loss drugs revolutionizing workplace efficiency presents a promising economic narrative, with potential benefits for both individuals and the broader economy.
