A groundbreaking study has revealed that the severe drought that plagued the Amazon rainforest in 2023, resulting in widespread devastation, was intensified by the ongoing climate crisis. The analysis indicates that the drought, reaching unprecedented levels in many regions, would have been considerably less severe without the influence of planet-warming emissions from fossil fuels.
The study underscores that the extreme drought, classified at the highest “exceptional” level on the scientific scale, became 30 times more likely due to global heating. While the natural El Niño climate phenomenon contributed to drier conditions, its impact was minor compared to the overwhelming influence of climate change.
The Amazon rainforest, already on the brink of a tipping point towards a drier state, poses a grave concern. A shift in this direction could lead to a mass die-off of trees, releasing substantial amounts of CO2 and elevating global temperatures. The devastating consequences of the drought include drinking water shortages, failed crops, power cuts, exacerbated wildfires, and a mass mortality of river life.
Regina Rodrigues, a professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil, emphasized the critical role of protecting the Amazon in the fight against climate change. She stated, “If we protect the forest, it will continue to act as the world’s largest land-based carbon sink. But if we allow human-induced emissions and deforestation to push it through the tipping point, it will release large amounts of CO2. We need to protect the rainforest and move away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible.”
The analysis, conducted by the World Weather Attribution team, compared today’s climate, which is 1.2°C hotter, with a cooler, pre-industrial climate. The focus was on “agricultural drought,” considering both low rainfall and increased evaporation due to high temperatures. The findings reveal that global heating, driven by climate change, significantly decreased rainfall and heightened temperatures in the Amazon, making the 2023 drought about 30 times more likely.
The study estimates that the extreme drought of 2023, under present climate conditions, would occur roughly once every 50 years. However, if global heating reaches 2°C, such severe droughts could be expected every 13 years. Large-scale deforestation for beef and soy production in recent decades has exacerbated the drought, as cleared land retains less water.
Recent data indicates that the Amazon rainforest is nearing a tipping point, with over 75% of the untouched forest losing stability since the early 2000s. The implications are profound, affecting global climate and biodiversity. Gareth Redmond-King, at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit in the UK, stressed the critical role of the Amazon, not only in climate regulation but also as a key source for the UK’s food imports.
As the climate crisis continues to unfold, the study emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive measures to protect the Amazon and mitigate the devastating impacts of climate change.
