The International Labour Organization’s (ILO) World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 report indicates that global unemployment is expected to rise in 2024, despite both joblessness and the jobs gap falling below pre-pandemic levels. The report raises concerns about growing inequalities and stagnant productivity. Despite a decline in unemployment and the jobs gap, the recovery from the pandemic remains uneven, with new vulnerabilities and multiple crises affecting prospects for social justice. The report projects a worsening labor market outlook in 2024, with an additional two million workers seeking jobs and the global unemployment rate increasing from 5.1 percent in 2023 to 5.2 percent.
Disposable incomes have declined in many G20 countries, and income inequality has widened, posing challenges for a sustained economic recovery. In high-income countries, the jobs gap rate in 2023 was 8.2 percent, compared to 20.5 percent in low-income countries. Working poverty is expected to persist, with the number of workers living in extreme poverty increasing by about one million in 2023. Income inequality and the erosion of real disposable income are highlighted as threats to aggregate demand and a sustained economic recovery.
The report notes that rates of informal work are expected to remain around 58 percent of the global workforce in 2024. The return to pre-pandemic labor market participation rates varies among different groups, with women’s participation bouncing back quickly, but a gender gap persists. Youth unemployment rates and the Not in Employment, Education, or Training (NEET) rate remain challenges, particularly for young women.
